$1.2 Billion Shockwave: Vietnam’s ‘Smart Money’ Dealers Defy Foreign Sell-Off with Record Stock Frenzy

The quiet final hours of last week’s trading in Vietnam’s stock market delivered a massive, counter-intuitive shock, with domestic securities firms (known locally as “Tự doanh CTCK” or proprietary traders) unleashing a massive VND 1.195 trillion (approx. $1.2 billion) net buying spree on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE).

This aggressive, institution-led accumulation of shares directly challenged a persistent VND 672 billion ($27.5 million) net selling trend from crucial foreign investors, signalling a profound divergence in market sentiment between local “smart money” and international capital that global investors cannot afford to ignore.

This sudden, heavy domestic conviction buying—dubbed an “unexpected force” by local analysts—occurred even as the benchmark VN-Index wrestled with broad selling pressure, particularly across the crucial banking and brokerage sectors. While liquidity remained subdued, the late-day surge, concentrated in blue-chip holdings like the Vingroup conglomerate, alongside key banking and steel stocks, was potent enough to lift the VN-Index to a close of 1,635.46 points. The action underscores a belief among Vietnamese institutions that the recent market pullback represents a prime buying opportunity, not a fundamental decline.

The buying was overwhelmingly focused on a single entity: GEE, which saw an unprecedented net purchase of VND 990 billion. This massive block trade, representing over 80% of the proprietary desks’ total net inflow, suggests a highly strategic, calculated move on a major corporate development or a significant re-rating opportunity known only to this inner circle of local professional traders. Other significant buys included brokerage VIX (VND 115 billion), infrastructure firm CII (VND 83 billion), and energy stock POW (VND 40 billion), highlighting a preference for infrastructure, energy, and financial services that typically underpin an accelerating emerging market economy.

For international fund managers and analysts using Vietnam as a proxy for Southeast Asian growth, this data is critical. The consistent foreign outflow is a clear concern, often driven by global factors like US interest rates and a stronger dollar, but the powerful, concentrated domestic institutional buying acts as a crucial stabilizing force and a vote of confidence in local asset valuations. The market is now a battleground between short-term global liquidity risks and deep-pocketed local conviction, which is often a precursor to a major structural rally once global headwinds abate.

The massive, targeted institutional purchase of GEE and other key shares proves that Vietnam’s market is currently being driven by localized, high-conviction plays, effectively decoupling from the pessimism displayed by foreign funds. The ultimate outcome of this domestic-vs-foreign tussle will determine if the VN-Index is headed for a short-term correction or is merely reloading for a push past the 1,635 level.

Global investors must now decide: Is the record domestic accumulation a leading indicator of an imminent breakout, or is it a classic “dead cat bounce” where locals are simply catching falling knives from departing foreign capital?