Ho Chi Minh City Women Have the Lowest Birth Rate in Vietnam

The average number of children born to women of reproductive age in Ho Chi Minh City is just 1.43, the lowest in the country. Experts warn this trend could accelerate population aging and lead to future labor shortages.

“Ho Chi Minh City is still in the golden population period, with 70.7% of residents in working age. However, it is no longer a ‘young city’ as it is facing rapid aging,” said Pham Chanh Trung, Head of the city’s Population Department, at the launch of a communication campaign on improving population quality in low-fertility areas on September 25.

Following recent administrative mergers, Ho Chi Minh City has become Vietnam’s largest mega-urban area, with more than 14 million residents across 168 wards and districts. It is now among the country’s 13 provinces with the lowest fertility rates, while also entering the aging phase with 1.47 million elderly people (10.49% of the population). The city’s aging index is 57.05 – meaning there are 57 seniors for every 100 children under 15. In 2024, life expectancy in the city reached 76.2 years, higher than the national average of 74.7.

For years, Ho Chi Minh City has consistently recorded fertility rates well below Vietnam’s replacement level of 2–2.1 children per woman. The recent merger with Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau – provinces also in the country’s “low-birth zone” – has done little to change the situation.

Experts warn that prolonged low fertility will shrink the young workforce while the elderly population continues to rise. This puts increasing pressure on social welfare and healthcare systems, requiring policies to boost population quality through premarital health checks, prenatal and newborn screening, and elderly care services.

Deputy Director of the city’s Health Department, Bui Chi Tinh, emphasized that the total fertility rate of 1.43 is “a warning figure,” calling for immediate adaptation measures. From September 15 to October 30, the health sector is running a campaign to encourage families to have two children, expand premarital and perinatal health checks, and strengthen elderly care.

To encourage childbirth, since August the city has increased financial support for women giving birth to two children before age 35, raising the benefit from VND 3 million to VND 5 million. As of now, 9,100 women have received the 3 million support package under Resolution 40, while 8,500 women have received the new 5 million benefit under Resolution 32 of the municipal People’s Council.