According to experts, slow liquidity and the phenomenon of falling real estate prices are spreading in the market, which is a sign of a ‘deflated’ sign. However, this is just an adjustment for the market to enter the recovery phase and accelerate again.
The market “farts”
Mr. Nguyen Hoang, a real estate research expert, once commented that: “The real estate market is showing clear signs of “fission”.
The basis for this statement, Mr. Hoang pointed out a series of problems of the market, that is, purchasing power is weakening not only in the secondary market but also in the primary market. Many people think that investors will pour money into buying real estate to preserve the value of assets and money in the context of inflation, but in fact, many people are hesitant to be cautious when real estate prices are still at a low level. very high, they divert cash flow to savings or buy gold and foreign currency.
According to Mr. Hoang, the cause affecting the current market movements is not entirely due to real estate credit control policies. Because this policy has been in place for a long time. This is only part of the impact that makes real estate buyers no longer easy to borrow as before.
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This expert further analyzed, before talking about whether the market is slowing down to enter a new growth cycle, we must look at reality. Currently, although liquidity is slow, housing prices are still high compared to people’s incomes. In addition, the new supply over the past time has improved, but it is still basically very low, much lower than in 2019 and earlier.
Talking about the future scenario of the market in 2022, Mr. Hoang frankly said that the real estate market still has many challenges. Considering the current context, the most likely scenario is that real estate prices stay the same and developers will increase sales policies to support and attract buyers. Even, the possibility of a decrease in the primary price is possible if investors are pressured on capital flow.
Meanwhile, Mr. Dinh Hoang Thang, senior manager of Batdongsan.com made a general comment on the market, that is, the primary selling price is difficult to reduce because of limited supply and high demand, especially at the center. big cities. However, this development may be opposite in the secondary market, the selling price may be reduced in some segments.
Mr. Thang predicted that areas where land fever appeared, prices skyrocketed in a short time but did not match the potential, in the near future there will be a phenomenon of price reduction. However, the price will only decrease locally in some hot growth areas but there is no driving force for development and growth markets with real value will not decrease.
And Mr. Hien gave another point of view. Mr. Hien said that some markets will have reduced liquidity, especially in real estate areas that have not yet generated cash flow for mining, trading or real estate of great value. This decrease in liquidity has been rekindled since the first quarter of 2022, but it has only really begun so far. Accordingly, all segments such as land plots, townhouses… that were previously pushed up by virtual price increases will lose liquidity for a long time if they still anchor the selling prices as high as they are today. Investors can lower the price of products about 20-30% compared to the market is quite possible.
Still optimistic about the market
“Adjust for refinement” – that’s the optimistic statement of some experts. Although acknowledging the slow movement of liquidity, there is a part of cutting losses, but experts expect that the real estate market will soon recover and accelerate.
Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, Marketing Director of CBRE Vietnam’s housing project, said that the market will enter a period of strong screening for investors. Only investors with good financial capacity can ensure the ability to implement project products. As for investors, general sentiment will be affected when restrictive policies are applied.
Investors themselves will have plans to restructure their investment portfolios. The investment decision at the present time will be more carefully selected because of the liquidity factor. Investors will have a longer-term investment mentality.
Meanwhile, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that the real estate market is at a “vacuum to earth, head to heaven” level.
The majority of real estate transactions in the past 2 years were by investors, the number of purchases for living only accounted for 0.26 per thousand, the market was a playground for project developers and secondary investors.
“But Vietnam’s economy is growing well, causing concerns about the real estate and stock markets to decrease, with a stable macroeconomic background, low inflation, high economic growth, and a small increase in interest rates. … so that the market will not collapse and then recover”, Mr. Nghia made an optimistic forecast.
Source: CafeF
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